Solar IV: AD CVD Final Affirmative Determination
On September 11, 2026, the U.S. Department of Commerce (“DOC”) announced its final affirmative determinations in the antidumping duty (“AD”) and countervailing duty (“CVD”) investigations of crystalline silicon photovoltaic cells from India, Indonesia, and the Lao People's Democratic Republic (“Laos”).
This decision marks the conclusion of the DOC’s investigative phase in what is known as Solar IV. The U.S. International Trade Commission (“ITC”) has scheduled the final injury vote on October 14, 2026 to determine whether the impacted imports, which are categorized by DOC as being dumped and subsidized, materially injure or threaten the domestic manufacturing industry.
Key Takeaways
The DOC concluded that producers in each of the three countries exported solar cells to the United States below fair value and received subsidies that can be offset under U.S. countervailing duty rules. Combined AD and CVD margins under the determinations reach as high as approximately 249% for India, 268% for Indonesia, and 219% for Laos.
The final AD/CVD are case-specific under the Tariff Act of 1930. They will stack on top of existing tariffs, such as Section 232 minimum import prices.
The ITC will take up the proceedings next, with its final injury vote scheduled for October 14, 2026. If that determination is affirmative, the DOC will issue official duty orders. A negative injury finding will end the proceedings, in which case CBP will refund the cash deposits already collected.
Cell procurement for U.S. module assembly has already migrated away from the target nations, but remaining supply chain exposure to India, Indonesia, and Laos creates near-term diligence, procurement, and contracting risk for developers, owners, and financing parties.
Summary Impacts
India
The DOC set final dumping margins at 123.04% for all Indian producers (based on facts available with adverse inferences), along with a CVD rate of 126.09%. The adjusted cash deposit rate for the AD margin is 107.17% after subsidy offsets. Individually named respondents include Mundra Solar PV Limited, Mundra Solar Energy Limited, Kowa Company Ltd., and Premier Energies Photovoltaic Private Limited.
Indonesia
For all Indonesian producers, DOC set final dumping margins at 94.36% (based on facts available with adverse inferences). Final CVD rates range from 73.20% (for PT REC Solar Energy Indonesia) to 173.70% (for PT Blue Sky Solar Indonesia, based on facts available with adverse inferences), with the all-others rate set at 73.20%. Notably, the all-others AD rate increased significantly from the preliminary rate of 35.17% to 94.36% in the final determination.
Laos
For all Laotian importers, the DOC set final dumping margins at 65.43% (up from the preliminary rate of 22.46%), with a subsidy-offset adjusted cash deposit rate of 65.03%. Final CVD rates were established at 82.03% for Solarspace Technology (Laos) Sole Co. Ltd. and 153.67% for Vietnam Sunergy Joint Stock Company (based on facts available with adverse inferences), with an all-others CVD rate of 82.03%.
Background on Prior Solar AD/CVD Investigations
These investigations are part of a series of escalating U.S. trade enforcement actions targeting crystalline silicon PV cells reaching back more than a decade. In October 2012, the DOC announced its affirmative final determinations in the AD/CVD investigations of imports of PV cells from the People's Republic of China. In April 2025, the DOC announced its final affirmative determinations in the AD/CVD investigations of PV cells from Cambodia, Malaysia, Thailand, and Vietnam (the "Solar III" cases). Shipments from those four nations fell dramatically following the Solar III duty orders, from $12.2 billion in 2023 to $1.3 billion in 2025.
The Solar IV investigations of India, Indonesia, and Laos were initiated after the Alliance for American Solar Manufacturing and Trade filed petitions in July 2025, alleging that solar panel manufacturers had relocated their operations to those countries to avoid tariffs placed on imports from Cambodia, Malaysia, Thailand, and Vietnam. The DOC announced preliminary affirmative CVD determinations on February 24, 2026, and preliminary affirmative AD determinations on April 23, 2026.
Market Impacts and Next Steps
Cell sourcing for domestic module assembly had already shifted significantly ahead of the Solar IV determinations and will likely continue to do so. Large volumes of cells now come from South Korea, the Philippines, and emerging African production hubs such as Kenya, Nigeria, and Ethiopia. South Korean suppliers face trade pressure of their own, arising from a separate petition that American Manufacturers for Energy Resilience, a coalition of U.S. solar manufacturers, has filed. The DOC has separately initiated a country-wide circumvention inquiry into solar products assembled in Ethiopia, which could result in additional duties on Ethiopian-assembled solar products.
The ITC will take up the Solar IV proceedings next, with its final injury vote scheduled for October 14, 2026. If the ITC’s determination is affirmative for a given country, the DOC will issue corresponding official duty orders, imposing the finalized cash deposit rates. A negative injury finding will end the proceedings, in which case CBP will refund the cash deposits already collected.
We will continue to monitor and report on these developments. Clients should review any ongoing or previously executed equipment supply agreements, EPC agreements, and MIPAs for potential impacts and amendments, paying particular attention to change-in-law, tariff cost allocation, force majeure, compliance, substitution, and delay-damages provisions. Clients should also work with knowledgeable counsel to update forms of such agreements to incorporate protections against increased costs for developers and owners arising from these determinations and future developments.
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