Update: AD/CVD Inquiry Initiation - Ethiopia
On May 12, 2026, a coalition of eight U.S. solar manufacturers filed a formal request with the U.S. Department of Commerce (“DOC”) to initiate an anti-circumvention inquiry into solar products assembled in Ethiopia. The filing alleges that two manufacturers specifically, TOYO Solar Manufacturing and Origin Solar Manufacturing, are evading payment of existing U.S. duties on Chinese solar products by routing alleged Chinese-manufactured products, such as wafers, through minor manufacturing operations in Ethiopia prior to importing into the U.S.
On July 17, 2026, the DOC published a notice initiating a country-wide circumvention inquiry into solar products assembled in Ethiopia. Because the DOC has now initiated this inquiry, if it issues an affirmative determination, Ethiopian-assembled solar products could face significant anti-dumping and/or anti-countervailing duties (“AD/CVD”) duties—with potential retroactive implications, which could affect not only the named manufacturers but other importers, project developers, and manufacturers across the U.S. renewable project supply chain that are importing similar products from Ethiopia.
The circumvention inquiry covers two parallel lanes of products: (i) solar cells and modules completed in Ethiopia using parts and components from China that are exported directly from Ethiopia to the United States, and (ii) solar cells completed in Ethiopia using Chinese-origin parts and components that are then completed or assembled into modules in Vietnam using additional inputs from China before being exported to the United States.
Pursuant to the initiation notice, the DOC has directed U.S. Customs and Border Protection to continue the suspension of liquidation of entries already subject to suspension under the underlying AD/CVD orders and to apply the applicable cash deposit rates, and to begin suspension of liquidation and cash deposit collection for unliquidated entries not yet suspended as of the date of publication of the initiation notice, with potential retroactive application to certain earlier entries.
Background on Similar AD/CVD Investigations and Determinations into Crystalline Silicon Photovoltaic (PV) Cells
On October 10, 2012, the DOC announced its affirmative final determinations in the AD/CVD investigations of imports of PV cells from the People’s Republic of China. On April 21, 2025, the DOC announced its final affirmative determinations in the AD/CVD investigations of PV cells from Cambodia, Malaysia, Thailand, and the Socialist Republic of Vietnam (Vietnam). Most recently, on April 23, 2026, the DOC announced its preliminary affirmative determinations in the antidumping duty investigations of PV cells from India, Indonesia, and the Lao People’s Democratic Republic. The final determinations in the investigation for PV cells from India and Indonesia are scheduled to be announced on or around July 13, 2026, and from the Lao People’s Democratic Republic, on or around September 9, 2026.
The expansion in the geographic regions targeted by these investigations and subsequent determinations has contributed to a heightened sense of uncertainty across the PV supply chain. The practical and legal strategy resulting from this uncertainty for parties such as developers, sponsors, and financiers, includes taking a conservative market approach on the selection of suppliers, profit margins, procurement and project timelines, diligence requirements, and overall risk appetite for changes in law.
What to Watch
On July 17, 2026, the DOC published its notice initiating the country-wide circumvention inquiry. Key upcoming milestones include:
Respondent selection based on U.S. Customs and Border Protection data, with comments on the data and respondent selection due within seven days after the data is placed on the record,
Preliminary circumvention determination, due no later than 150 days from the July 17, 2026 initiation notice (on or about December 14, 2026),
Final circumvention determination, due within 300 days from the July 17, 2026 initiation notice (on or about May 13, 2027),
Potential expansion to additional countries in Africa and the Middle East, including monitoring a similar request filed for solar products assembled in South Korea.
We will continue to monitor these developments and provide updates as they emerge. In the meantime, clients should (i) review any ongoing module supply agreements, EPC agreements, and MIPAs for change-in-law provisions and tariff cost allocation treatment, and (ii) update forms of such agreements to incorporate protections against increased costs for developers and owners arising from this investigation and future determinations.
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